Wed, Mar 30, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 2, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 017 | 115 | 18 | 240 |
| CAR | 215 | 211 | 29 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:06CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Tuomo Ruutu · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 5:23MTLMichael CammalleriPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 6:10CARJamie McBainGWGAssists: Erik Cole, Cory Stillman · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 9:03CARJoni PitkanenAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 9:01MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 15:24CARJamie McBainAssists: Drayson Bowman · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 17:47CARCory StillmanPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P2 3:52CARBrandon Sutter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:39MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:44CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:56CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:20MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:46MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:46MTLBenoit Pouliot: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:46MTLP.K. Subban: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:46CARTim Gleason: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:47MTLRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec8:19
xG 0.36–0.12 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pouliot4:20
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Halpern – Darche – Moen2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White6:27
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban16:15
xG 0.58–0.09 (87%)attempts 23–6goals 0–1
- Sopel – Mara10:20
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski17:15
xG 0.84–0.98 (46%)attempts 28–20goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Sutter – Bowman8:15
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Stillman – Cole – Staal12:17
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner11:24
xG 0.55–0.48 (54%)attempts 12–19goals 3–0
- LaRose – Tlusty – Sutter4:08
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Pitkanen5:52
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain8:59
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 3–0
- Allen – Gleason11:50
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).