Wed, Mar 30, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 13 | 19 | 422 |
| CGY | 110 | 010 | 15 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:05ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Brandon McMillan, Brad Winchester · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 15:40ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Lubomir Visnovsky · Deflected, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 18:51ANALubomir VisnovskyGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Toni Lydman · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 0:32CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:13ANACorey PerryENAssists: Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:02CGYAles Kotalik: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:15CGYRobyn Regehr: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:59ANAMatt Beleskey: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:51CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:40ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:13CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:44CGYJarome Iginla: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:00ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:43ANALuca Sbisa: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00ANABrad Winchester: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:19ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:07ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:45CGYTom Kostopoulos: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan10:43
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Marchant – Beleskey – McMillan2:43
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Winchester – Beleskey – McMillan3:40
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Marchant – Ruutu – Parros2:14
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Sbisa6:00
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lydman – Beauchemin3:24
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Fowler4:09
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Backlund7:33
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Stajan – Nemisz – Bouma3:10
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Kotalik – Jackman3:26
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque8:29
xG 0.17–0.45 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Giordano2:06
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sarich – Giordano9:16
xG 0.20–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano4:12
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).