Thu, Mar 31, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 07 | 111 | 227 |
| NYI | 011 | 411 | 211 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:25NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:24NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:57NYIRadek MartinekAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 13:28NYIJesse JoensuuGWGAssists: Radek Martinek, Jack Hillen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 14:44NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Matt Moulson, Dylan Reese · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 8:38NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Dylan Reese · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–5
- P3 14:00NYITrevor GilliesAssists: Dylan Reese, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 19:46NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Brandon Prust, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (28)
- P1 0:52NYRDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:28NYIJesse Joensuu: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:08NYIPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
- P1 16:29NYRMarian Gaborik: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:29NYRMarian Gaborik: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:29NYRBryan McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:29NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:29NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:29NYIRadek Martinek: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:58NYIBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:23NYIJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P2 1:07NYITy Wishart: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:08NYIJosh Bailey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:13NYIJack Hillen: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:13NYIJack Hillen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 6:13NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:52NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:52NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:56NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:56NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:51NYIDylan Reese: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:51NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:51NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:46NYRBrandon Prust: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:46NYITrevor Gillies: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:51NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Gaborik – Stepan11:52
xG 0.67–0.48 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Anisimov – Zuccarello3:01
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Christensen – Zuccarello3:32
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Avery – Boyle – Prust6:30
xG 0.43–0.46 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Eminger10:22
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Sauer – McDonagh12:53
xG 0.84–0.88 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 2–2
- Staal – Girardi16:44
xG 0.25–1.11 (18%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:03
xG 1.27–0.32 (80%)attempts 19–8goals 3–0
- Comeau – Okposo – Bailey3:23
xG 0.19–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Martin3:56
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Comeau – Okposo – Haley2:18
xG 0.01–0.08 (12%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWishart – Hamonic6:40
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Reese – Hamonic4:37
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 3–0
- Hillen – Hamonic2:24
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).