Thu, Mar 31, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Atlanta Thrashers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 06 | 08 | 18 | 122 |
| PHI | 010 | 014 | 019 | 043 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 10:22ATLNik AntropovGWGAssists: Evander Kane · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:40ATLDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
- P1 4:15PHIVille Leino: Interference2 min
- P1 10:04PHINick Boynton: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:38PHIDaniel Carcillo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:04PHIAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:58ATLAnthony Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:34PHIKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:52ATLEvander Kane: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:10ATLToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 5:57PHIDaniel Brière: Interference2 min
- P3 12:15ATLRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:14PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:14ATLRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Schremp – Kane8:30
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little7:50
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Burmistrov6:53
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Stewart – Stapleton – Maxwell9:46
xG 0.35–0.94 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Stuart10:17
xG 0.73–0.44 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:07
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien9:47
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino12:13
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk6:14
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – Nodl6:44
xG 0.02–0.53 (4%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoynton – Carle5:51
xG 0.81–0.09 (90%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros8:10
xG 0.34–0.07 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros7:16
xG 0.23–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).