Thu, Mar 31, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 113 | 113 | 235 |
| MIN | 29 | 210 | 03 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24MINAntti MiettinenPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Andrew Brunette · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 7:59MINMarek ZidlickyAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Kyle Brodziak · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:24MINBrad StaubitzGWGAssists: Eric Nystrom, John Madden · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 13:13MINMartin HavlatAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 19:19EDMTom GilbertPPAssists: Ryan Jones, Magnus Paajarvi · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 14:44EDMLinus OmarkPPAssists: Tom Gilbert, Jim Vandermeer · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:50EDMTheo Peckham: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:22EDMJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:45MINAntti Miettinen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:52MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:52EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:05EDMJim Vandermeer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:05EDMChris VandeVelde: Holding2 min
- P2 17:47MINAntti Miettinen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:10MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:42MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:17MINBrent Burns: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:11EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P3 19:40EDMGilbert Brule: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against VandeVelde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestReddox – Brule – Eberle8:52
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Jones – VandeVelde – Paajarvi8:07
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jacques – MacIntyre – O'Marra4:35
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Omark – Hartikainen10:01
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Petry14:18
xG 0.52–0.35 (59%)attempts 20–7goals 0–2
- Strudwick – Peckham10:58
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid11:19
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBouchard – Brodziak – Clutterbuck7:50
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Staubitz7:44
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu9:05
xG 0.02–0.35 (6%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Cullen – Havlat – Kobasew7:49
xG 0.03–0.48 (6%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Burns11:55
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky15:18
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon9:54
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).