Thu, Mar 31, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 118 | 14 | 334 |
| COL | 09 | 05 | 215 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:35NSHColin WilsonAssists: Matt Halischuk, Blake Geoffrion · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 10:20NSHJordin TootooAssists: Cody Franson, Martin Erat · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 12:52NSHMartin EratPPGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–0
- P3 13:35COLPaul StastnyAssists: Milan Hejduk, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 18:58COLDavid JonesAssists: John-Michael Liles, Kevin Porter · Deflected, 0.32 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 11:33COLDavid Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:28COLRyan O'Byrne: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:39COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00NSHDavid Legwand: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGeoffrion – Halischuk – Wilson4:58
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Spaling2:39
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling7:14
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Erat – Ward14:06
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson15:28
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber20:32
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum12:58
xG 0.59–1.01 (37%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stastny – Duchene13:57
xG 1.23–0.29 (81%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Jones – Porter – Stastny2:46
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Winnik – Duchene2:50
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Porter – Stoa7:41
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson14:46
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Liles – Johnson3:30
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne16:03
xG 0.39–0.66 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).