Thu, Mar 31, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 0, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 010 | 011 | 08 | 029 |
| SJS | 114 | 217 | 321 | 652 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:12SJSDan BoyleGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Kyle Wellwood · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 4:30SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Dany Heatley · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 18:25SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Joe Thornton, Devin Setoguchi · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 2:30SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Jamal Mayers, Ian White · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 12:26SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–5
- P3 14:18SJSBen EagerAssists: Jamal Mayers, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:56DALJeff Woywitka: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:26DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:17SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:06SJSJamal Mayers: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:56SJSDevin Setoguchi: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:43DALTomas Vincour: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Petersen – Wandell2:23
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Petersen – Williams – Wandell2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Richards – Eriksson2:41
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn8:58
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Woywitka2:39
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Robidas – Goligoski5:34
xG 0.27–0.33 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Daley – Fistric4:19
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Setoguchi10:14
xG 1.34–0.51 (72%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell9:48
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Mayers – Eager – Desjardins7:40
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture10:40
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – White13:44
xG 1.45–0.22 (87%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers15:16
xG 0.92–0.28 (77%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray16:27
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 25–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).