Fri, Apr 1, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 111 | 29 | 325 |
| STL | 111 | 17 | 09 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20STLMatt D'AgostiniPPAssists: David Backes, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 14:27STLDavid BackesAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 15:48CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 8:01CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Jarome Iginla, Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 14:57CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:11STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:32CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P1 10:43CGYJarome Iginla: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:36STLAlexander Steen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:23CGYTom Kostopoulos: Interference2 min
- P2 14:45CGYTim Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:45STLBarret Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:10STLBarret Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:32STLNikita Nikitin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:01CGYRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:01STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDonald won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Iginla – Tanguay5:15
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Backlund4:57
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque4:43
xG 0.03–0.08 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jackman – Glencross – Backlund2:17
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Carson12:17
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester13:30
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Sarich – Babchuk7:28
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Steen – Porter – Sobotka8:17
xG 0.18–0.17 (50%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Janssen – Crombeen – Reaves2:29
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini9:08
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Oshie – Stewart – Berglund8:46
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk8:36
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Nikitin – Polak12:59
xG 0.31–0.48 (40%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:01
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).