Fri, Apr 1, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 16 | 11 | 02 | 1 | 420 |
| PHX | 07 | 113 | 216 | 02 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:36COLPhilippe DupuisAssists: Jay McClement, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 7:16COLJay McClementAssists: Daniel Winnik, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 16:29PHXLee StempniakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 2:46PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Eric Belanger, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 12:23PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 15:29COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Kevin Porter, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHX Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 4. COL Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 5. PHX Ray Whitney stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:35PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:59COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:20PHXRyan Hollweg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:01PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:28COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:56COLJonas Holos: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:11COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:56PHXMichal Rozsival: Interference2 min
- P3 11:49COLJay McClement: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:39COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Porter – Duchene6:58
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Jones – Winnik – Stastny6:16
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Yip – McLeod2:27
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hunwick – Johnson13:47
xG 0.28–0.39 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Liles – O'Byrne9:51
xG 0.30–0.44 (40%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
- O'Byrne – Holos3:20
xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Stempniak – Ebbett5:20
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Whitney – Doan – Belanger12:02
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
- Vrbata – Turris – Boedker7:39
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Ebbett – Boedker2:17
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Klesla14:03
xG 0.92–0.16 (85%)attempts 25–5goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle11:54
xG 0.82–0.51 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Rozsival – Schlemko11:22
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).