Sat, Apr 2, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Atlanta Thrashers 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 14 | 111 | 015 | 230 |
| BOS | 16 | 111 | 17 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34BOSMark RecchiAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 11:11ATLDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:37ATLEvander KaneAssists: Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 6:18BOSDaniel PailleSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 12:31BOSMichael RyderGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:06BOSTuukka Rask: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 14:19BOSMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:54ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:47BOSShane Hnidy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:31ATLJohnny Oduya: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Schremp – Kane12:47
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Stewart – Stapleton – Maxwell8:35
xG 0.08–0.19 (31%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Burmistrov9:55
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little14:10
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Byfuglien11:50
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Bogosian2:48
xG 0.24–0.01 (94%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Byfuglien4:49
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Bergeron – Marchand10:54
xG 0.87–0.52 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Ryder – Campbell – Paille8:57
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Seguin8:30
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic12:16
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHnidy – Ference12:18
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk17:35
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Seidenberg15:51
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).