Sat, Apr 2, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 015 | 212 | 112 | 12 | 441 |
| NSH | 111 | 210 | 012 | 01 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:00NSHRyan SuterPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:42NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 2:37NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Mike Fisher, Matt Halischuk · Slap, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 3:28DETJakub KindlUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 4:49DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Brad Stuart, Tomas Holmstrom · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 3:59DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 2:58DETDaniel ClearyGWGAssists: Brian Rafalski, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 4:34DETTodd Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:34NSHShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:17NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:31NSHShane O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:31DETTomas Holmstrom: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:46DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P1 14:18NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:16DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:07DETJustin Abdelkader: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:34DETTomas Holmstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:16DETBrad Stuart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:43DETTodd Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:43NSHShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:49DETKris Draper: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:02NSHMartin Erat: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:19DETRuslan Salei: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:08DETRuslan Salei: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Eaves – Helm6:46
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Franzen – Abdelkader5:06
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Filppula – Franzen2:35
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Hudler9:33
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kindl8:32
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Rafalski – Ericsson14:53
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart13:13
xG 0.58–0.43 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward9:59
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Dumont – Geoffrion – Wilson3:20
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Smithson – Halischuk – Spaling7:16
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist9:31
xG 0.02–0.34 (6%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson9:11
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum10:56
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Suter – Weber14:27
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).