Sat, Apr 2, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 014 | 26 | 329 |
| NJD | 03 | 09 | 19 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Brian Gionta, Hal Gill · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 0:29MTLP.K. SubbanPPGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 3:34MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 14:01NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Patrik Elias, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:48MTLHal Gill: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 14:47MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:26NJDBrian Rolston: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:58NJDJay Leach: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:20NJDAdam Mair: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:20MTLRyan White: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Darche13:11
xG 0.67–0.11 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Moen – Pouliot – Desharnais11:26
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn11:43
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Pyatt – White – Eller7:44
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski18:53
xG 0.81–0.34 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Gill – Subban16:59
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Sopel – Mara11:42
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMair – Steckel – Clarkson7:42
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Tedenby – Josefson3:16
xG 0.08–0.00 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri5:39
xG 0.05–0.05 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Parise – Tedenby – Josefson3:38
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fraser6:39
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Leach – Salmela2:23
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fraser – Greene3:12
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).