Sat, Apr 2, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 19 | 213 | 434 |
| FLA | 215 | 03 | 012 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45PITTyler KennedyAssists: Jordan Staal, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:38FLAJack SkilleAssists: Marty Reasoner, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:00FLAClay WilsonAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 0:45PITPascal DupuisAssists: Max Talbot, Chris Conner · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 12:49PITZbynek MichalekGWGAssists: Paul Martin, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:30PITCraig AdamsENAssists: Jordan Staal, Ben Lovejoy · Slap, 0.58 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P3 4:45PITMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 8:08FLARyan Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:40PITCraig Adams: Interference2 min
- P3 15:40FLAClay Wilson: Holding2 min
- P3 16:30PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Santorelli won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Talbot – Conner10:50
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- Kovalev – Neal – Letestu11:05
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal11:02
xG 0.22–0.69 (24%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Adams – Rupp – Comrie9:31
xG 0.05–0.59 (8%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang15:23
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Martin – Michalek16:50
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Lovejoy12:52
xG 0.27–0.78 (25%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Booth – Skille14:03
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Carter – Dadonov – Repik8:18
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Hordichuk – Bergfors2:15
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Bergfors – Carter2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCallahan – Wilson12:49
xG 0.76–0.35 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Weaver – Ellerby5:01
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison10:13
xG 0.43–0.25 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).