Sat, Apr 2, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 2, San Jose Sharks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 010 | 05 | 222 |
| SJS | 06 | 213 | 214 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 11:15ANALubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 2:01SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Ryane Clowe, Douglas Murray · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 12:45SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 14:39SJSDevin SetoguchiPPGWGAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:19SJSPatrick MarleauENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:12SJSAndrew Desjardins: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:49SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:21SJSDevin Setoguchi: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:38ANAJason Blake: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:55ANAGeorge Parros: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:55SJSJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55ANAJarkko Ruutu: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:55SJSBen Eager: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Marchant – Ruutu – Parros4:33
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake12:07
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Winchester – Beleskey – McMillan9:25
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan18:11
xG 0.69–0.98 (42%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Fowler2:09
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa15:39
xG 0.71–0.91 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Fowler13:48
xG 0.28–0.53 (35%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Setoguchi14:01
xG 1.02–0.52 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Wellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell11:51
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture13:14
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Mayers – Eager – Desjardins5:07
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray19:17
xG 1.40–0.59 (70%)attempts 19–21goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic2:33
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Wallin – White12:01
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).