Sun, Apr 3, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 112 | 16 | 229 |
| DET | 210 | 110 | 114 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46DETDarren HelmAssists: Patrick Eaves, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:40DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 4:32MINBrad StaubitzAssists: Justin Falk · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 12:38DETTomas HolmstromPPGWGAssists: Brian Rafalski, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 6:11DETJohan FranzenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 16:54MINCarson McMillanAssists: Brad Staubitz, Eric Nystrom · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:44MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:18DETBrian Rafalski: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:29DETJakub Kindl: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:27MINMatt Cullen: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:13DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P2 12:12MINBrad Staubitz: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:43DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:42MINBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Abdelkader
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestNystrom – Staubitz – McMillan7:10
xG 1.21–0.14 (90%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Bouchard – Brodziak – Clutterbuck9:35
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu10:54
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kobasew – Gillies8:30
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Noreau8:14
xG 0.86–0.24 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Stoner – Spurgeon14:37
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Zanon – Burns17:37
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Franzen – Abdelkader10:14
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg6:10
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Filppula – Hudler3:40
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg7:27
xG 0.03–0.10 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Ericsson3:00
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart11:20
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl11:46
xG 0.21–0.61 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).