Sun, Apr 3, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 4, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 213 | 06 | 431 |
| ANA | 29 | 16 | 012 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:13DALJeff WoywitkaAssists: Brenden Morrow, Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 17:07DALMike RibeiroAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 18:41ANALubomir VisnovskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 7:20DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Tom Wandell · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 15:04DALMike RibeiroPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 18:43ANACorey PerrySHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:15ANABobby Ryan: Holding2 min
- P1 12:06ANABrad Winchester: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:48DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:28DALTom Wandell: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:33ANACorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P2 12:59ANAJarkko Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:41ANAToni Lydman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:57ANAGeorge Parros: Holding2 min
- P3 18:59DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Ott12:56
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Langenbrunner – Petersen – Wandell10:34
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Barch – Williams – Segal4:04
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Benn12:07
xG 0.40–0.57 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLukowich – Goligoski7:26
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley9:33
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Robidas – Skrastins15:33
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan17:46
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake12:26
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Marchant – Beleskey – McMillan4:22
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Marchant – Ruutu – Parros2:21
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Sbisa10:48
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Fowler3:41
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Fowler9:00
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).