Mon, Apr 4, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 219 | 14 | 07 | 330 |
| NYR | 05 | 29 | 312 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:16BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Michael Ryder · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 16:53BOSNathan HortonAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 10:32BOSChris KellyAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 11:34NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Marc Staal · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 18:26NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 16:12NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Ryan Callahan, Artem Anisimov · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 17:03NYRMichael SauerGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:07NYRDerek StepanENAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Michael Sauer · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:55NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:15BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:02BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:28BOSDavid Krejci: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:53BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Peverley – Seguin7:33
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Ryder – Campbell – Paille9:41
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand11:00
xG 0.83–0.64 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:55
xG 0.88–0.83 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Seidenberg15:44
xG 1.14–0.68 (63%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Chara – Boychuk12:39
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Ference – Boychuk2:13
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Wolski – Stepan8:31
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Gaborik – Dubinsky – Anisimov3:24
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Callahan4:49
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov5:31
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi15:51
xG 1.25–0.41 (75%)attempts 25–10goals 2–0
- Eminger – Staal2:35
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eminger – Sauer10:29
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).