Tue, Apr 5, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 117 | 014 | 01 | 1 | 341 |
| TOR | 15 | 16 | 09 | 01 | 0 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37TORNikolay KuleminPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:28WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Brooks Laich, Marco Sturm · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:35TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 12:07WSHJohn ErskineAssists: Matt Hendricks, Matt Bradley · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 2. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 3. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 4. WSH Matt Hendricks stopped
- 5. TOR Nikolay Kulemin stopped
- 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 7. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 8. WSH Mike Knuble scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:23WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:37TORMatt Lashoff: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 11:17TORJoey Crabb: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:34TORMike Komisarek: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:34WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:26TORTim Brent: Holding2 min
- OT 4:50WSHNicklas Backstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom10:49
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Arnott – Chimera – Laich6:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon10:13
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Laich – Fehr3:30
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson18:50
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Erskine – Collins9:50
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Hannan – Schultz21:58
xG 0.38–0.78 (32%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak14:51
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Crabb – Boyce – Kadri9:47
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Brent – Rosehill – Brown5:31
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin13:59
xG 0.18–0.56 (24%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson3:12
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lashoff – Schenn7:21
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie15:38
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).