Tue, Apr 5, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 19 | 110 | 224 |
| PIT | 18 | 111 | 28 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:37PITJordan StaalPPAssists: James Neal, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 15:08NJDDavid SteckelAssists: Rod Pelley, Nick Palmieri · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 16:11PITPascal DupuisAssists: Max Talbot, Zbynek Michalek · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 1:31PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 4:32NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Mattias Tedenby, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:59PITPascal DupuisSHAssists: Craig Adams · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:24PITMax Talbot: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:22NJDAnssi Salmela: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:06NJDNick Palmieri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:00NJDJacob Josefson: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:19PITJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri7:21
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Steckel – Pelley – Palmieri4:17
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Rolston – Elias – Tedenby10:07
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Mair – Steckel – Pelley3:55
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Salmela17:35
xG 0.92–0.53 (63%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Fraser11:55
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Leach – Fayne13:35
xG 0.17–0.50 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Talbot – Conner8:54
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Rupp10:04
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Neal – Letestu8:46
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal9:34
xG 0.47–0.76 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang17:44
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Lovejoy12:36
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Martin – Michalek15:45
xG 0.54–0.85 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).