Tue, Apr 5, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 114 | 020 | 00 | 143 |
| MTL | 012 | 112 | 09 | 12 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:55MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Paul Mara · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 10:05CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Troy Brouwer, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 1:19MTLP.K. SubbanPPGWGAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:40MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:54MTLRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min
- P2 0:46CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- P2 7:20CHIViktor Stalberg: Holding2 min
- P2 7:42MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:45MTLP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:17CHITomas Kopecky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:20MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Holding2 min
- OT 0:37CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Frolik – Kane2:50
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Kane – Kruger4:04
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Frolik – Kane3:52
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Frolik2:00
xG 0.02–0.01 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Campoli3:47
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Keith2:01
xG 0.25–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Campbell – Hjalmarsson11:46
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn12:25
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Pyatt – White – Eller4:27
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Darche9:52
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
- Moen – Pouliot – Desharnais5:15
xG 0.04–0.13 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban14:20
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Sopel – Mara11:09
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski15:57
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).