Tue, Apr 5, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 06 | 09 | 127 |
| STL | 17 | 112 | 110 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:55STLDavid BackesAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Andy McDonald · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:42COLKevin PorterAssists: Mark Olver, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 4:07STLKevin ShattenkirkPPGWGAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Andy McDonald · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:20STLAndy McDonaldENAssists: Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (26)
- P1 5:13STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:12COLBrandon Yip: Elbowing2 min
- P1 17:33STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:33COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:33STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:33COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:33STLCam Janssen: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:33COLDavid Koci: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 2:27COLJonas Holos: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:39COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:08STLT.J. Oshie: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:08COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:31STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P3 9:17COLMark Olver: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:17COLRyan Stoa: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:17STLVladimir Sobotka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:17STLBarret Jackman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:17COLRyan Stoa: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:17COLRyan Stoa: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:17COLKevin Porter: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:17COLMark Olver: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:17STLB.J. Crombeen: Instigator2 min
- P3 9:17STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:17STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:17STLVladimir Sobotka: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:17STLB.J. Crombeen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Jones – Winnik10:44
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Olver – Duchene12:06
xG 0.47–0.58 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Porter – Stoa – O'Reilly7:30
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Yip – McLeod4:22
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson11:42
xG 0.68–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Wilson4:10
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Holos4:07
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Porter – Sobotka8:05
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Oshie11:11
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- D'Agostini – Stewart – Berglund12:54
xG 0.26–1.01 (21%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:58
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Polak12:12
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Pietrangelo2:03
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).