Tue, Apr 5, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 012 | 05 | 319 | 336 |
| NSH | 312 | 17 | 25 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Jerred Smithson · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:18NSHJordin TootooAssists: Martin Erat, Jonathon Blum · Wrist, 0.53 xG0–2
- P1 19:57NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 1:56NSHJordin TootooGWGAssists: Matt Halischuk · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–4
- P3 2:28NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Cody Franson, Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–5
- P3 3:06ATLBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 6:18NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 16:25ATLBlake WheelerAssists: Ron Hainsey, Tim Stapleton · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 17:10ATLNik AntropovAssists: Evander Kane, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P2 13:24NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:00ATLNik Antropov: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:59ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:07ATLBen Maxwell: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:37NSHPatric Hornqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:55ATLBen Maxwell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:55NSHColin Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:55ATLBen Maxwell: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 2:55NSHColin Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:49ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:49ATLEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Thorburn – Schremp6:03
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov15:47
xG 0.69–0.67 (51%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Stapleton – Maxwell2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:42
xG 0.64–1.03 (38%)attempts 21–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Bogosian2:07
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian13:26
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Zubarev – Bogosian4:01
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward9:03
xG 0.95–0.36 (72%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Halischuk9:38
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist12:48
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Legwand – Ward – Wilson2:14
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber18:25
xG 1.13–0.74 (60%)attempts 15–23goals 0–2
- Klein – Blum17:05
xG 0.82–0.45 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Franson13:23
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 6–14goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).