Wed, Apr 6, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 2, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 014 | 214 | 04 | 232 |
| BOS | 115 | 210 | 08 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:59BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Daniel Paille, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:24NYIMichael GrabnerPPAssists: Blake Comeau, Rick DiPietro · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 7:51BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Chris Kelly, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 9:09BOSGregory CampbellGWGAssists: Adam McQuaid, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–3
- P2 14:26NYIMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Josh Bailey, Ty Wishart · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:03NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:03NYITrevor Gillies: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:52BOSRich Peverley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34NYITrevor Gillies: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:04NYIPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:04BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:05NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:34NYIMatt Campanale: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:27BOSJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Grabner – Bailey9:56
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Gillies – Konopka – Haley4:41
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Comeau – Joensuu – Martin8:09
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:39
xG 0.20–0.73 (21%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Katic3:59
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Katic – Hamonic2:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Reese – Wishart3:25
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Kelly – Peverley6:12
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille11:57
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic7:28
xG 0.39–0.20 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand9:14
xG 0.39–0.35 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk12:44
xG 0.97–0.43 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Ference – Seidenberg9:59
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Seidenberg7:11
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).