Wed, Apr 6, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 06 | 27 | 224 |
| NJD | 111 | 210 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:47NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Jacob Josefson, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 14:29NJDMattias TedenbyAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 15:34NJDHenrik TallinderGWGAssists: Adam Mair, Rod Pelley · Slap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 6:18TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Matt Lashoff · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 12:42TORTyler BozakSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:50NJDPatrik EliasENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:54TORJoey Crabb: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:39TORClarke MacArthur: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:47TORKeith Aulie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:05NJDJacob Josefson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:02TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
- P3 12:34TORDion Phaneuf: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak11:44
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin10:42
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Rosehill – Brown5:14
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Crabb – Boyce – Kadri6:26
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Aulie14:17
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Lashoff – Schenn4:15
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson3:04
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Elias – Tedenby10:54
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Steckel – Clarkson3:47
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri11:58
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Steckel – Clarkson2:35
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Salmela2:31
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne6:28
xG 0.32–0.22 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Leach – Fayne6:55
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).