Wed, Apr 6, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 018 | 011 | 013 | 042 |
| CAR | 015 | 29 | 18 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:04CARDerek JoslinPPGWGAssists: Cory Stillman, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 18:47CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Eric Staal · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 5:44CARErik ColeAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:08DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:18CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:30DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:31DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:36CARDrayson Bowman: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 8:32DETMike Modano: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg3:45
xG 0.37–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen7:11
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Draper – Eaves – Helm7:26
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Franzen – Abdelkader2:35
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Rafalski2:15
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Salei – Ericsson2:16
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart12:39
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner11:10
xG 1.04–0.43 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Staal9:57
xG 0.78–0.41 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Samson4:43
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman11:56
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain13:01
xG 0.85–0.74 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Corvo – Joslin2:55
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason3:07
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).