Thu, Apr 7, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 0, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 010 | 011 | 029 |
| VAN | 28 | 213 | 17 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12VANMason RaymondGWGAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:32VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–2
- P2 7:20VANRyan KeslerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 9:11VANMason RaymondAssists: Daniel Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 2:18VANRyan KeslerAssists: Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:22VANAaron Rome: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:04VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P1 18:50MINKyle Brodziak: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:54MINKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:02VANKevin Bieksa: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:16VANJannik Hansen: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:49MINBrad Staubitz: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:49MINBrad Staubitz: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestNystrom – Ortmeyer – McMillan2:25
xG 0.23–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Nystrom – Ortmeyer2:51
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Cullen – Ortmeyer – McMillan2:15
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu10:11
xG 0.28–0.27 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Burns17:39
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 20–14goals 0–2
- Falk – Noreau9:55
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Stoner – Spurgeon15:24
xG 0.20–0.46 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Higgins – Kesler8:24
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:30
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Hansen – Raymond2:30
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Glass – Hansen – Raymond2:40
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Rome13:23
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Edler14:33
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Salo – Ballard12:46
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).