Fri, Apr 8, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 115 | 112 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 438 |
| NYI | 010 | 112 | 213 | 03 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57PITMike RuppAssists: Eric Godard, Craig Adams · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 11:11PITZbynek MichalekPPAssists: Kris Letang, Tyler Kennedy · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 15:18NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Matt Moulson, Jesse Joensuu · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 8:14NYIBlake ComeauPPAssists: Michael Grabner, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 12:21PITMark LetestuAssists: Mike Rupp, Arron Asham · Snap, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 19:25NYITravis HamonicAssists: Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI PA Parenteau stopped
- 2. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 3. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 4. PIT Alex Kovalev stopped
- 5. NYI Blake Comeau stopped
- 6. PIT Chris Kunitz scored
Penalties (21)
- P1 2:30PITJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:24NYIZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:59NYITrevor Gillies: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:59PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:59NYITrevor Gillies: Misconduct10 min
- P1 8:59PITEric Godard: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:11NYIMicheal Haley: Clipping2 min
- P1 11:57PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:57NYIZenon Konopka: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:57NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:57NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:49PITBrooks Orpik: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:49PITBrooks Orpik: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:23NYIBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:28NYIRadek Martinek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:58PITArron Asham: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:38PITPaul Martin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:24PITMike Rupp: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:27NYIPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:14PITMax Talbot: Holding2 min
- OT 5:00PITZbynek Michalek: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Comeau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Kennedy – Staal2:14
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Letestu2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Asham – Dupuis – Talbot6:50
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kennedy – Staal4:56
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Lovejoy5:43
xG 0.96–0.27 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Orpik – Letang7:21
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Martin – Michalek11:21
xG 0.68–0.59 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:07
xG 1.00–0.54 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Okposo – Grabner – Bailey5:15
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Joensuu – Martin4:38
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – Martin3:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReese – Wishart2:32
xG 0.58–0.08 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Martinek – Reese3:22
xG 0.50–0.10 (84%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Martinek – Wishart3:43
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).