Fri, Apr 8, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Atlanta Thrashers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 210 | 18 | 314 | 632 |
| ATL | 06 | 07 | 16 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 6:15CARErik ColeGWGAssists: Cory Stillman · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 0:32CARJoni PitkanenPPAssists: Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 5:22CARBrandon SutterAssists: Chad LaRose · Snap, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 6:40CARJussi JokinenAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.25 xG5–0
- P3 7:50CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–0
- P3 19:21ATLBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.09 xG6–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:20ATLBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:46ATLChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P1 18:47ATLRon Hainsey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 12:02ATLNik Antropov: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:40ATLOndrej Pavelec: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 10:47ATLDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:47ATLDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:47ATLDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:12CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:28CARJiri Tlusty: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:28ATLChris Thorburn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner10:30
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Samson8:09
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Staal7:59
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman10:26
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason12:49
xG 1.07–0.18 (85%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Pitkanen – McBain15:23
xG 1.01–0.30 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Allen – Joslin15:25
xG 0.37–0.61 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little9:30
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Stapleton – Maxwell – Burmistrov7:20
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Boulton – Stewart – Schremp5:09
xG 0.02–0.07 (17%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZubarev – Bogosian10:58
xG 0.28–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stuart – Zubarev3:27
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian2:15
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).