Fri, Apr 8, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 122 | 011 | 145 |
| NSH | 110 | 28 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:00NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Mike Fisher, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 1:48NSHMatt HalischukGWGAssists: Jerred Smithson, Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 2:42NSHPatric HornqvistUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 18:32CBJDerick BrassardAssists: R.J. Umberger · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 12:25NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Kevin Klein · Tip-in, 0.33 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 14:52NSHBlake Geoffrion: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:52CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:50CBJSami Lepisto: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:58NSHSteve Sullivan: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:55CBJSami Lepisto: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:08CBJSami Lepisto: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Voracek13:12
xG 1.26–0.84 (60%)attempts 21–5goals 1–1
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett11:04
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Upshall14:35
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert7:10
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Clitsome14:43
xG 1.01–0.29 (78%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Hejda – Clitsome2:21
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Lepisto2:06
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist11:20
xG 0.94–0.57 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 3–0
- Legwand – Ward – Spaling13:21
xG 0.81–0.81 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Geoffrion – Wilson7:47
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Halischuk11:47
xG 0.29–0.69 (30%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- O'Brien – Franson15:31
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Klein – Blum17:54
xG 0.92–1.05 (47%)attempts 10–26goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber16:28
xG 0.50–1.28 (28%)attempts 8–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).