Fri, Apr 8, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 16 | 114 | 327 |
| EDM | 08 | 115 | 06 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:30MINBrent BurnsPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:25MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 2:52EDMTeemu HartikainenAssists: Jordan Eberle, Chris VandeVelde · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 19:11MINAndrew BrunetteENAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–1
Penalties (23)
- P1 0:07MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:07EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:07MINClayton Stoner: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 2:31MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:31EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:55MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:17EDMSteve MacIntyre: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:17EDMSteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:17EDMSteve MacIntyre: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 9:36MINCal Clutterbuck: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:36EDMTheo Peckham: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:36MINCal Clutterbuck: Boarding5 min
- P1 9:36MINKyle Brodziak: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:36EDMLiam Reddox: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:36EDMLiam Reddox: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:55EDMChris VandeVelde: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 10:07MINBrad Staubitz: Holding2 min
- P2 19:25EDMChris VandeVelde: Holding2 min
- P3 13:46MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:46EDMTheo Peckham: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:18EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:18MINDrew Bagnall: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:02EDMLinus Omark: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against VandeVelde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Miettinen – Clutterbuck4:39
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kobasew – McMillan – Gillies2:27
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brunette – Koivu – Bouchard7:06
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Nystrom – Brodziak – Staubitz3:39
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Burns8:11
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Zanon – Noreau3:03
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zanon – Spurgeon6:18
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Reddox – O'Marra6:32
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Omark – Paajarvi2:01
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Eberle – Hartikainen10:22
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Omark – Paajarvi10:05
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Strudwick – Vandermeer2:02
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Smid2:10
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Foster2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).