Sat, Apr 9, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 09 | 013 | 132 |
| BOS | 19 | 18 | 112 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:53BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Gregory Campbell, Shawn Thornton · Snap, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 18:27OTTBobby ButlerAssists: Milan Michalek, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 1:08BOSNathan HortonPPGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 14:52BOSRich PeverleyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:39BOSNathan Horton: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:02OTTRyan Shannon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:02OTTRyan Shannon: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:08BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:24BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:44BOSMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:41OTTRyan Shannon: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:10OTTJason Spezza: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Greening – Condra4:31
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler6:03
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
- Neil – Foligno – Da Costa8:15
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Michalek – Shannon – Condra4:48
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Lee16:40
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Kuba – Benoit12:56
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Benoit – Smith2:42
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Kelly – Peverley10:21
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille11:59
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:12
xG 0.15–0.30 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Recchi – Marchand – Seguin8:54
xG 0.15–0.63 (19%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk14:29
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Kaberle – McQuaid15:36
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hnidy – Ference12:38
xG 0.14–1.00 (12%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).