Sat, Apr 9, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 213 | 111 | 110 | 434 |
| TOR | 110 | 09 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29MTLRyan WhiteAssists: Lars Eller, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 6:12MTLBrian GiontaPPGWGAssists: Scott Gomez, Mathieu Darche · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 13:13TORPhil KesselAssists: Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 16:20MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Yannick Weber, Roman Hamrlik · Snap, 0.54 xG3–1
- P3 13:29MTLTomas PlekanecSHAssists: Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:55TORMike Brown: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 4:55TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:55MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:53MTLBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:08TORMatt Lashoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:59TORDarryl Boyce: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:05MTLTom Pyatt: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:20MTLBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:32MTLJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Colborne
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Darche11:14
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White4:34
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn10:21
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – Subban10:07
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski13:19
xG 0.49–0.34 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Sopel – Mara5:51
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestFrattin – Bozak – Kadri12:08
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin8:04
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Colborne13:04
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Crabb – Boyce – Brown6:35
xG 0.04–0.32 (12%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Aulie17:03
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson2:08
xG 0.09–0.13 (39%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Lashoff8:02
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).