Sat, Apr 9, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 315 | 110 | 011 | 436 |
| PHI | 313 | 212 | 214 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Mike Richards, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 0:47PHIScott HartnellAssists: Ville Leino, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 7:03NYIMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P1 9:31NYITravis HamonicPPAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P1 9:50PHIDaniel BrièreUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P1 12:05NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Dylan Reese, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.38 xG3–3
- P2 0:53NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–3
- P2 8:00PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: Matt Carle, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P2 18:29PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 9:40PHIAndrej MeszarosPPAssists: Daniel Brière, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–6
- P3 19:59PHIDarroll PoweENAssists: Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–7
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:11NYITravis Hamonic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 2:11PHIDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min
- P1 2:11NYITrevor Gillies: Misconduct10 min
- P1 2:11NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P1 7:29PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P1 9:04PHIAndrej Meszaros: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:19PHIMike Richards: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:32NYIBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:51NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:51PHINikolay Zherdev: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:15NYIBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:15PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:56PHIAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:54NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:19NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:40NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:53PHIMike Richards: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Grabner – Bailey6:56
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:49
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Comeau – Okposo – Grabner2:03
xG 0.05–0.14 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Joensuu – Martin6:30
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReese – Wishart2:18
xG 0.41–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Reese – Katic4:42
xG 0.37–0.34 (53%)attempts 3–8goals 1–2
- Martinek – Katic4:43
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Carter – Giroux8:28
xG 1.21–0.29 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk8:00
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Carcillo – Nodl – Powe4:21
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino7:33
xG 0.91–1.16 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Syvret6:12
xG 1.30–0.06 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Carle – Meszaros6:30
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Coburn – Carle2:14
xG 0.02–0.02 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).