Sat, Apr 9, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 0, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 08 | 011 | 028 |
| FLA | 06 | 010 | 17 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 13:55FLABill ThomasGWGAssists: Patrick Rissmiller, Tim Kennedy · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:04FLADavid Booth: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:26WSHMatt Hendricks: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:24WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom14:51
xG 1.02–0.13 (89%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Beagle9:12
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Laich – Semin – Johansson9:48
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon9:35
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Collins13:44
xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Hannan – Schultz17:15
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson18:08
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Booth – Dadonov13:33
xG 0.49–0.25 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Rissmiller – Kennedy – Thomas9:34
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Bergfors – Repik9:39
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Skille13:24
xG 0.17–1.09 (13%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Kulikov16:53
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 22–18goals 0–0
- Callahan – Wilson12:47
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison19:58
xG 0.32–1.03 (24%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).