Sat, Apr 9, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 07 | 217 | 12 | 339 |
| CGY | 011 | 219 | 06 | 00 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:39CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 11:27CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 2:02VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.47 xG1–2
- P3 11:05VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 2:41VANChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Jannik Hansen · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:26VANDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:59CGYBrendan Mikkelson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:31VANHenrik Sedin: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:32CGYJarome Iginla: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:20VANTanner Glass: Interference2 min
- P2 0:44VANChris Higgins: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:01VANRyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:50VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:58VANChris Higgins: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:03CGYRobyn Regehr: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:03VANMikael Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:03CGYJarome Iginla: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:03VANAlexandre Burrows: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:14VANMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:14CGYMatt Stajan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:14CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows5:52
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Sedin – Sedin3:47
xG 0.08–0.18 (30%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Glass – Hansen – Raymond6:36
xG 0.11–0.25 (29%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Higgins – Kesler9:31
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler10:52
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Ballard2:47
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Salo – Ballard4:22
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Backlund12:00
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Langkow – Kostopoulos – Glencross7:31
xG 0.19–0.15 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Jackman – Bourque8:34
xG 0.35–0.80 (30%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Carson10:27
xG 0.51–0.09 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Sarich – Babchuk5:33
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester10:56
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).