Sat, Apr 9, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Phoenix Coyotes 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 09 | 014 | 113 | 136 |
| SJS | 012 | 213 | 112 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:11SJSIan WhiteAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Kyle Wellwood · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 18:37SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 8:36PHXLauri KorpikoskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 18:29SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Dany Heatley, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:31SJSJamal Mayers: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:46PHXMichal Rozsival: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:12SJSJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00SJSJoe Thornton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:00PHXMartin Hanzal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:32SJSIan White: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:59PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:44SJSNiclas Wallin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:56PHXKyle Turris: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:56SJSPatrick Marleau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:00PHXEd Jovanovski: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Korpikoski – Hanzal11:18
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Whitney – Doan – Belanger12:21
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Ebbett – Turris4:52
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak8:14
xG 0.37–1.04 (26%)attempts 8–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Klesla6:50
xG 0.43–0.12 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Klesla4:47
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Yandle3:48
xG 0.18–0.16 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell9:35
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi11:16
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – Eager4:50
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Heatley – Ferriero – Couture8:17
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers12:35
xG 1.16–0.64 (64%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Wallin – White15:51
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 18–21goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray13:49
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).