Sun, Apr 10, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Atlanta Thrashers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 48 | 13 | 520 |
| ATL | 112 | 011 | 116 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07ATLAndrew LaddPPAssists: Bryan Little, Nik Antropov · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 6:25PITTyler KennedyPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Ben Lovejoy · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:53PITPascal DupuisAssists: Max Talbot, Chris Conner · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:27PITMike RuppGWGAssists: Eric Godard, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 18:14PITMark LetestuAssists: Eric Tangradi, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 13:15ATLTim StapletonPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 18:32PITMike ComrieENAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:28PITEric Godard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:39PITMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:53ATLAndrey Zubarev: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:52ATLBlake Wheeler: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:37ATLJohnny Oduya: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:39PITMatt Niskanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:14PITEric Tangradi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:59PITArron Asham: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Rupp – Godard2:06
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Rupp – Comrie – Kennedy4:37
xG 0.18–0.21 (45%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Asham – Adams – Godard5:12
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Talbot – Conner10:36
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Lovejoy8:53
xG 0.32–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Orpik – Letang10:16
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Engelland – Lovejoy2:14
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Kane – Burmistrov2:51
xG 0.53–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:09
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Stapleton – Maxwell – Burmistrov3:55
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Antropov – Thorburn – Klingberg2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian3:30
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien10:59
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Zubarev6:13
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).