Sun, Apr 10, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 210 | 09 | 03 | 328 |
| COL | 212 | 04 | 14 | 15 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26EDMTeemu HartikainenPPAssists: Linus Omark, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 4:24COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: David Jones, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 5:14COLPhilippe DupuisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 5:08EDMKurtis FosterPPAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Linus Omark · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 12:28EDMLiam ReddoxAssists: Ryan O'Marra · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 0:30COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Matt Duchene, David Jones · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 3:57COLDavid JonesPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Milan Hejduk · Backhand, 0.44 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:25COLMark Olver: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:02EDMChris VandeVelde: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:56COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:15EDMRyan O'Marra: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:09EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:09COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:09EDMTheo Peckham: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:13EDMKurtis Foster: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:11EDMLiam Reddox: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Omark – Paajarvi12:03
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Reddox – O'Marra10:26
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Eberle – Hartikainen11:27
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Petry14:37
xG 0.75–0.21 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Strudwick – Peckham3:01
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Foster3:45
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – McLeod – Stoa3:52
xG 0.49–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Winnik – O'Reilly7:22
xG 0.40–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Olver – Duchene8:40
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Porter – Yip7:22
xG 0.11–0.74 (13%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Wilson10:52
xG 0.63–0.10 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Foote – Belle11:13
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Belle – O'Byrne2:28
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).