Sun, Apr 10, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 212 | 29 | 431 |
| CHI | 010 | 19 | 217 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:18CHIMichael FrolikAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:56DETTomas HolmstromUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 7:58DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Daniel Cleary, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 1:56DETDrew MillerAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 4:07CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Viktor Stalberg · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 8:11DETDaniel ClearyGWGAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 11:22CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:44DETTomas Holmstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:23DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:58CHITomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:58DETBrian Rafalski: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:02DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowell won the faceoff against Abdelkader
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen12:18
xG 1.49–0.65 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
- Datsyuk – Filppula – Franzen2:09
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Hudler – Miller9:03
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Draper – Modano – Helm5:50
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart17:04
xG 1.58–0.96 (62%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Rafalski – Ericsson18:21
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Ericsson2:05
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPisani – Bickell – Dowell8:15
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
- Johnson – Kopecky – Stalberg6:36
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Frolik – Kane – Smith11:12
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews13:06
xG 0.87–1.52 (37%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Hjalmarsson8:46
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson2:55
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Keith – Leddy4:41
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).