Sun, Apr 10, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 215 | 13 | 011 | 329 |
| MIN | 19 | 28 | 26 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:05MINBrad StaubitzAssists: Brent Burns, Carson McMillan · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:28DALBrad RichardsAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 16:07DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 7:19MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 11:53MINColton GilliesAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Chuck Kobasew · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:17DALAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 6:47MINAntti MiettinenGWGAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:47MINPierre-Marc BouchardENAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Greg Zanon · Slap, 0.60 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:13MINDrew Bagnall: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:47MINGreg Zanon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:38DALBrandon Segal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:36MINColton Gillies: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 17:58MINGreg Zanon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:08MINMatt Cullen: Holding2 min
- P3 4:35DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Ott11:03
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Petersen – Wandell4:48
xG 0.08–0.08 (52%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Burish – Wandell2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Benn13:25
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski2:01
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski3:30
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Robidas – Skrastins13:09
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Miettinen – Clutterbuck8:05
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Staubitz – McMillan4:06
xG 0.07–0.03 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kobasew – Brodziak – Gillies7:54
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Nystrom – Brodziak – Staubitz2:19
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Burns19:45
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 25–13goals 3–0
- Bagnall – Noreau6:30
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Stoner – Spurgeon17:07
xG 0.19–0.89 (17%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).