Thu, Oct 6, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 014 | 04 | 014 | 032 |
| TOR | 04 | 18 | 16 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:33TORMatthew LombardiSHGWGAssists: Mike Brown, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 4:42TORDion PhaneufAssists: Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:53TORJohn-Michael Liles: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:29TORLuke Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:47MTLJosh Gorges: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:19TORTyler Bozak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:48MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:30MTLAndreas Engqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:48MTLScott Gomez: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:42TORColby Armstrong: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:24TORLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn7:21
xG 0.69–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Darche – Desharnais6:56
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty10:56
xG 0.48–0.33 (60%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Cammalleri – Plekanec3:43
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban7:16
xG 0.63–0.05 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Gorges – Campoli6:06
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban3:11
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Steckel – Dupuis6:46
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Rosehill – Brown3:56
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin10:04
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak10:56
xG 0.20–1.02 (17%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Komisarek – Gardiner9:04
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson10:26
xG 0.27–0.49 (36%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Liles – Schenn14:05
xG 0.32–0.58 (35%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).