Fri, Oct 7, 2011·Ericsson Globe, StockholmNeutral site
New York Rangers 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 14 | 08 | 113 | 01 | 226 |
| LAK | 113 | 06 | 18 | 13 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Justin Williams · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:22NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Artem Anisimov, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 10:28NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 15:01LAKMike RichardsAssists: Brad Richardson, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 4:08LAKJack JohnsonPPGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:05NYRMats Zuccarello: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:04NYRSteve Eminger: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:24LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:24NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:44NYRTim Erixon: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:14LAKSimon Gagne: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:57NYRBrian Boyle: Interference2 min
- OT 2:51NYRRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 4:08NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Dubinsky11:24
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Callahan – Anisimov11:40
xG 0.76–0.60 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello8:48
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Rupp – Boyle – Prust8:09
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Del Zotto14:14
xG 0.87–0.43 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
- Eminger – Erixon10:57
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh20:46
xG 0.61–0.85 (42%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Williams – Kopitar14:50
xG 0.87–0.55 (61%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Hunter – Stoll – Parse10:01
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Moreau – Lewis – Clifford7:58
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Richards – Richardson12:25
xG 0.39–0.88 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez16:01
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Doughty17:24
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Johnson14:20
xG 0.69–0.93 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).