Sat, Oct 8, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 113 | 07 | 29 | 329 |
| NJD | 07 | 010 | 03 | 020 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 2:41PHIMatt ReadAssists: Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 4:50PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.57 xG3–0
Penalties (17)
- P1 0:27NJDPetr Sykora: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:39PHIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:21PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P2 1:24PHIBraydon Coburn: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:26NJDPatrik Elias: Holding2 min
- P2 14:29NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:53PHIMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:47NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00NJDDavid Clarkson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:30PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:30NJDDavid Clarkson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:30NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:30NJDDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:49NJDEric Boulton: Interference2 min
- P3 10:49NJDEric Boulton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:18PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:01NJDBrad Mills: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Voracek – Simmonds7:05
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Giroux – van Riemsdyk6:58
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Read – Couturier6:41
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Talbot – Nodl – Rinaldo5:55
xG 0.01–0.10 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Meszaros6:23
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lilja – Carle2:38
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Lilja – Coburn2:42
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSykora – Elias – Parise4:50
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Henrique – Josefson5:43
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boulton – Mills – Tedenby3:27
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Palmieri6:22
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Fayne8:31
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Greene – Larsson11:10
xG 0.19–0.78 (20%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Salvador – Volchenkov7:06
xG 0.03–0.67 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).