Sat, Oct 8, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 18 | 29 | 04 | 331 |
| WSH | 07 | 217 | 111 | 11 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:16CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 14:28WSHAlexander SeminAssists: John Carlson · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:39WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Joel Ward, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 0:18CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 16:15WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–3
- P3 18:41CARJussi JokinenAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 2:24WSHMike GreenPPGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:27CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Holding2 min
- P1 9:39CARChad LaRose: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:34WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:38WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:49WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 15:08CARJoni Pitkanen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:45CARBrandon Sutter: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:00WSHAlexander Semin: Boarding2 min
- OT 1:29CARJussi Jokinen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner4:50
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Stewart2:32
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brent – Stewart – Dalpe4:52
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner9:15
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Allen – Harrison6:57
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – Faulk5:13
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason6:07
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom14:14
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Laich12:20
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Halpern – Hendricks – Beagle8:09
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Semin – Brouwer – Perreault9:24
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Schultz14:13
xG 0.77–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:53
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Hamrlik – Green16:15
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).