Sat, Oct 8, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 04 | 35 | 416 |
| STL | 17 | 010 | 116 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44STLPatrik BerglundAssists: T.J. Oshie, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 11:37NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Shea Weber, David Legwand · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 6:01NSHDavid LegwandPPAssists: Craig Smith, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 12:17STLJason ArnottPPAssists: David Backes, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 13:14NSHKevin KleinGWGAssists: David Legwand, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:58NSHDavid LegwandENAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:58NSHZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:58STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:30STLJamie Langenbrunner: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:58NSHJack Hillen: Holding2 min
- P1 19:08STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:28NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:47STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:16NSHBlake Geoffrion: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:42NSHZack Stortini: Interference2 min
- P3 4:38STLChris Stewart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 12:13NSHCal O'Reilly: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Kostitsyn – Hornqvist – Spaling11:00
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Legwand – Wilson – Smith7:41
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Smithson – Stortini – Geoffrion3:49
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Smithson – Geoffrion – Halischuk2:03
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Laakso – Hillen8:23
xG 0.10–0.31 (23%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum16:05
xG 0.20–0.90 (18%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
- Suter – Weber15:53
xG 0.09–1.00 (9%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Stewart – Berglund10:52
xG 0.59–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Langenbrunner – McDonald – Backes12:08
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Arnott – Steen – D'Agostini8:23
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves3:09
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo4:20
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak3:51
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk8:31
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).