Sat, Oct 8, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 114 | 215 | 339 |
| COL | 011 | 09 | 09 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:41DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 11:58DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Daniel Cleary · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 17:40DETPavel DatsyukENAssists: Daniel Cleary, Ty Conklin · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:25COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P1 14:55COLRyan Wilson: Interference2 min
- P1 15:49DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P1 19:00COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P2 12:44DETDaniel Cleary: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:48COLPaul Stastny: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:51DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg8:17
xG 1.62–0.21 (89%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Eaves – Miller – Emmerton7:03
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Hudler2:06
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Hudler – Franzen5:24
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Kindl7:56
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall11:43
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – White14:54
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKobasew – Jones – Stastny10:08
xG 0.76–0.61 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Mueller – Duchene10:43
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:49
xG 0.36–0.46 (43%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- McClement – McLeod – Galiardi6:47
xG 0.11–0.44 (20%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Wilson12:49
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Quincey – O'Brien11:10
xG 0.83–0.81 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Hejda – Johnson15:27
xG 0.63–1.09 (37%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).