Sat, Oct 8, 2011·Ericsson Globe, StockholmNeutral site
New York Rangers 1, Anaheim Ducks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 07 | 13 | 00 | 0 | 115 |
| ANA | 17 | 09 | 010 | 02 | 1 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Andrew Gordon, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 17:45NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 2. NYR Erik Christensen stopped
- 3. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 4. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 5. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
- 6. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 7. ANA Bobby Ryan scored
- 8. NYR Artem Anisimov stopped
Penalties (19)
- P1 1:57ANABobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 3:49NYRBrian Boyle: Interference2 min
- P1 9:28ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:28NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:34NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:34ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:34NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:34ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:20ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:58NYRRyan Callahan: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:29ANABobby Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:50NYRBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:14NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:46NYRTim Erixon: Interference2 min
- P2 5:54ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:06ANAJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:43ANAGeorge Parros: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:53ANASaku Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:43NYRBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Richards – Gaborik – Dubinsky4:52
xG 0.06–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Callahan – Anisimov4:36
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Rupp – Christensen – Zuccarello2:03
xG 0.02–0.04 (31%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Prust – Stepan5:03
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto2:18
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:41
xG 0.18–0.22 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Eminger – Erixon6:40
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:29
xG 0.46–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake9:57
xG 0.25–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Parros – Macenauer – McMillan3:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Gordon – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly4:46
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler11:20
xG 0.40–0.03 (92%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa2:30
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Guenin5:51
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).