Sat, Oct 8, 2011·O2 Arena Berlin, BerlinNeutral site
Buffalo Sabres 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 313 | 14 | 426 |
| LAK | 012 | 110 | 111 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:40BUFLuke AdamAssists: Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:00BUFLuke AdamAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–0
- P2 13:19BUFPaul GaustadGWGAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 19:21LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 3:58BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 15:46LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Justin Williams, Simon Gagne · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:09LAKJarret Stoll: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:06BUFThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P2 9:53LAKJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:16BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:22LAKKevin Westgarth: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:59BUFNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:59LAKBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:29LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Adam won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – McCormick – Kaleta9:50
xG 0.79–0.08 (91%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Adam10:42
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Roy – Stafford – Gerbe9:37
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Boyes – Leino – Ennis9:32
xG 0.33–0.75 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Gragnani9:38
xG 1.03–0.44 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Leopold – Ehrhoff18:18
xG 0.98–0.43 (70%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Regehr – Myers14:07
xG 0.43–0.72 (37%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Stoll – Parse10:45
xG 0.43–0.12 (77%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Gagne – Williams – Kopitar15:14
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Brown – Richards – Richardson8:43
xG 0.24–0.73 (25%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Lewis – Westgarth – Clifford6:16
xG 0.25–0.99 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty14:24
xG 0.90–0.15 (85%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Martinez – Doughty3:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Greene2:00
xG 0.02–0.08 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).