Sun, Oct 9, 2011·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 5, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 19 | 36 | 522 |
| WPG | 08 | 09 | 114 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05MTLMichael CammalleriUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 14:17MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Travis Moen, Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 2:27WPGNik AntropovAssists: Mark Stuart, Alexander Burmistrov · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 4:51MTLYannick WeberPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 10:31MTLTravis MoenAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
- P3 12:32MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:35WPGJim Slater: Holding2 min
- P1 14:26MTLErik Cole: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:49MTLHal Gill: Interference2 min
- P1 19:30MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:44WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 3:22MTLYannick Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 6:53WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P2 12:15MTLScott Gomez: Holding2 min
- P3 3:43MTLP.K. Subban: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:43WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:28WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 17:15MTLRaphael Diaz: Interference2 min
- P3 19:58MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pacioretty12:36
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Darche – Kostitsyn – Desharnais8:39
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Cole – Moen – Plekanec7:06
xG 0.09–0.32 (23%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Emelin3:33
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Emelin – Weber7:44
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz7:38
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Kane – Scheifele5:00
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass4:52
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:31
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Wellwood – Glass – Scheifele2:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Enstrom11:04
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Bogosian10:54
xG 0.54–0.57 (48%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Oduya – Byfuglien9:45
xG 0.33–0.72 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).