Mon, Oct 10, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Minnesota Wild 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 02 | 010 | 19 | 121 |
| NYI | 29 | 02 | 03 | 214 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05NYIAndrew MacDonaldPPAssists: Travis Hamonic, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:45NYIFrans NielsenGWGAssists: Mark Streit, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 1:13MINMatt CullenAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Brett Bulmer · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:00NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:09NYIPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:54MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:24NYISteve Staios: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:17NYISteve Staios: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:17MINGuillaume Latendresse: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:28NYIMark Eaton: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:44NYIMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:37NYIBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P3 5:41MINBrett Bulmer: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:29NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P3 14:16MINMatt Cullen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Setoguchi13:55
xG 1.26–0.36 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Gillies4:06
xG 0.33–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Powe3:44
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Latendresse – Bulmer8:48
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon9:32
xG 0.93–0.25 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky12:25
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Scandella10:44
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:14
xG 0.80–0.50 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Martin5:25
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rolston – Comeau – Bailey7:19
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:08
xG 0.04–0.27 (13%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit13:23
xG 0.74–0.52 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Mottau – Eaton8:45
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic13:38
xG 0.22–1.02 (18%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).